Handicapper warns: Don’t bet against Nick Saban, Alabama

Normally, handicapper Paul Stone dives heavy into statistic erstwhile breaking down a matchup.

He’s not doing that for Monday’s College Football Playoff rubric crippled betwixt Alabama and Georgia successful Indianapolis.

“It’s much of a little blase approach,” Stone said. “It’s Alabama. It’s the nationalist title game. It’s Nick Saban, 1 of the top coaches of each time.”

Stone is backing the Crimson Tide arsenic underdogs. He played Alabama +3, but said helium would inactive play a half-unit connected the Tide astatine +2½ and enactment the different fractional connected the wealth line, wide disposable astatine +120 successful Las Vegas. (Wynn Las Vegas had +125 connected Saturday afternoon.)

The full is 52½.

Alabama is an underdog to Georgia for the 2nd clip this season. In the Southeastern Conference rubric crippled Dec. 4, the Crimson Tide rolled to a 41-24 triumph arsenic 6½-point underdogs.

The Bulldogs are inactive favored for the rematch, but the enactment has been adjusted 4 points aft the decisive Alabama victory.

The enactment was astatine Georgia -3 connected Friday earlier dipping to 2½. Westgate SuperBook sportsbook manager John Murray said “very crisp guys” took Alabama +3 to unit the enactment determination crossed the market.

“Now person seen crisp wealth connected some sides,” Murray said via substance message. “Public dense connected Alabama wealth line. Also took crisp enactment implicit 52. … Expecting the astir heavy stake assemblage shot crippled ever for the SuperBook.”

The Westgate is offering a seldom seen 8-cent enactment (-104 for dispersed bets alternatively of -110) and a 10-cent wealth enactment (Georgia -130/Alabama +120). That volition proceed until kickoff, Murray said.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook manager Chuck Esposito besides said the nationalist was heavy backing Alabama, particularly connected the wealth line. He said helium likes Georgia to get revenge Monday.

“The ’Dawgs volition beryllium barking, but it won’t beryllium the underdogs,” Esposito said.

Despite Alabama’s earlier blowout victory, Stone said helium understands the lawsuit for Georgia. The Bulldogs are favored for a reason.

“Georgia’s assemblage of enactment for its archetypal 12 games compared to Alabama’s archetypal 12 games is acold superior,” helium said.

Georgia did not let an hostile to people much than 17 points successful a crippled each play until playing Alabama, past the Bulldogs dominated Michigan 34-11 successful the CFP semifinals.

Alabama did not look similar a typically ascendant Crimson Tide squad for astir of the season. Alabama mislaid to Texas A&M 41-38 and struggled successful wins implicit Florida (31-29), Louisiana State (20-14), Arkansas (42-35) and Auburn (24-22).

However, facing elimination with a nonaccomplishment to Georgia successful the SEC rubric game, the Crimson Tide played by acold their champion crippled of the season, with backmost Bryce Young locking up the Heisman Trophy by throwing for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns and rushing for 40 yards and different score.

Alabama past eased past Cincinnati 27-6 successful the CFP semifinals, relying mostly connected its defence and moving crippled against the smaller Bearcats.

Stone said helium besides thinks Alabama has a intelligence edge. Saban is 4-0 against Georgia manager Kirby Smart, including a 26-23 overtime triumph successful the 2017 rubric game.

“Alabama mightiness beryllium wrong Georgia’s caput a small bit,” Stone said. “If Alabama gets up early, Georgia has to think, ‘Here we spell again.’”

Contact Jim Barnes astatine jbarnes@reviewjournal.com oregon 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV connected Twitter.